Sep 11

The Creationist Myth of Micro- vs. Macro-Evolution

If you participate in the evolution debate for any amount of time, you will inevitably come across an argument asserted by creationists in which they concede that there exists something labeled micro-evolution that we see all around us. However--as the argument goes--an intelligent higher-order being must be invoked to explain so-called macro-evolution (or speciation).

The major flaw in this argument is that once you've conceded the existence of natural selection and micro-evolution, you've conceded the very fundamental processes by which speciation is explained. I'm not aware of any evolutionary biologist who has claimed otherwise. They are one-and-the-same.

It doesn't take a very sophisticated thought experiment to arrive at this. All we need is to imagine some other force that is capable of isolating gene pools, allowing the organisms to independently evolve for many generations. We know these forces exist throughout nature in the form of tectonic shift, volcanic eruptions, flooding, mass migration, infighting, land bridges, climate shifts, ice ages, meteor strikes and so on.

Given enough generations, the isolated gene pools will have taken completely separate evolutionary paths, albeit still navigating the slow and gradual curve as predicted by natural selection. If and when these walled-off populations are reunited, the genetics of the common ancestor may no longer be recognizable in either group. Although they share a common ancestry, physical changes in either group could prevent them from evermore co-mingling their gene pools leading to further divergence.

It seems a major component in understanding how evolutionary forces--coupled with other natural phenomena--have diversified the animal/plant kingdoms is: time. Over long periods of time, natural forces will inevitably wall-off gene pools and chart them on divergent paths.

It follows, then, that if you enter the debate with a skewed sense of time (for example believing that the Earth is only a few thousand years old), then you're going to have to continue to invoke magic to explain that which can otherwise be explained by purely natural forces. Given that, we should continue to call it out for what it is: magic, not science.

Sep 09

Fantasy Football 2010

The football season has arrived. I am playing in two fantasy football leagues this year; both prize leagues. One with a group from work and another that I'm commissioning for a group of friends.

I wasn't terribly satisfied with my first draft. I made one mistake early by focusing on Miles Austin, whom I was nearly certain would fall to me at pick 3.9 because several players ahead me had gone WR in the 2nd round. The guy picking in 3.8 snatched him up after having taken QB, WR in the first two rounds. To his credit, it's a PPR league so he's placing added value on WR, but his decision to take Austin with that pick left him pretty shallow at RB. He landed Jahvid Best and Jonathan Stewart with his next two picks. Maybe I'll revisit this post later in the season and realize he's a FFB genius, but right now I'm skeptical.

My mistake was not having contingency when it came time to pick and I pulled the trigger on Chad Ochocinco--whom I had as the next highest ranked WR--because I was so honed in on landing the other WR. Although I had already taken 2 RBs (Steven Jackson and Shonn Greene), there was plenty of RB value (e.g. Arian Foster and LeSean McCoy) on the board and I probably could have waited until the next round to grab a WR in the same tier as Ochocinco had he no longer been available. The misplaced pick haunted me with the 4.4 pick where I landed Joseph Addai who has been the bane of my fantasy football existence.

This mistake has made me realize that there's a key element missing from my draft strategy: understanding average draft position (ADP). Doing mock drafts seems a bit silly, but it does let you gauge where other people rank players on average. If you have a player ranked higher on your list than other people seem to be drafting him, you may be able to sit on him for a while and play the value game until it comes time to strike. You will inevitably lose out on some players with this strategy--every draft is going to have its anomalies--but generally it should help you maximize value with each pick by not reaching for players.

Team 1

  • Joe Flacco
  • Chad Henne
  • Steven Jackson
  • Shonn Greene
  • Joseph Addai
  • Ahmad Bradshaw
  • Donald Brown
  • Chad Ochocinco
  • Wes Welker
  • Johnny Knox
  • Santana Moss
  • Mike Williams (TB)
  • John Carlson
  • Adam Vinatieri
  • Giants

The second draft is a protect 2 league which lets you keep 2 players that you drafted in the prior season, but for one year only. I opted to keep Ray Rice and Cedric Benson. Many of the big time RBs were keepers, but I still managed to, I feel, strengthen my RB picks with Ryan Mathews and Arian Foster who are potential keepers for next year.

I took a sleeper at TE with Gresham and will likely find myself keeping a watchful eye on the waiver wire for depth at that position. Also, this is not the QB corps I was hoping for, but there was a peculiar run on backup QBs in this draft that saw Flacco and Ryan taken a bit earlier than I had expected. Sanchez is obviously a bit of flyer, but there are some serviceable names on the free agent wire should I need to go digging for another backup.

Team 2

  • Donovan McNabb
  • Mark Sanchez
  • Ray Rice
  • Cedric Benson
  • Ryan Mathews
  • Arian Foster
  • Donald Brown
  • Miles Austin
  • Jabar Gaffney
  • Hakeem Nicks
  • Mike Wallace
  • Devin Thomas
  • Jermaine Gresham
  • Neil Rackers
  • Dolphins
Sep 05

2010 Chiefs Prediction

The 2010 NFL season will kick off soon. My prediction for Chiefs wins/losses this season is 6-10, which I think could prove to be a little on the conservative side. If they underperform this season--given the relatively weak schedule and weak division--I fear that we'll see yet another rebuilding era before we see the playoffs again.

Chiefs fans seem fairly divided this year, which actually may be a good sign. There generally tends to be a consensus; at least among fans who know what they're talking about. This year, however, I've heard some fans go as high as 12-4 and as some as low as 4-12.

Arrowhead Stadium has undergone renovation in the off-season. What I hope, for Chiefs fans, is that we are able to use this to rekindle the Arrowhead magic that waned during the Herm Edwards era. Historically, it hadn't mattered how bad the team was playing, it would still be difficult to beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead; especially in December. The sooner the Arrowhead twelfth man reemerges, the sooner we can stop calling ourselves a rebuilding team. Chicken, meet egg.

Sep 05

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Sep 05

Genealogy

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Sep 05

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Sep 04

Mingus - Making the complicated simple

Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple, that's creativity.

— Charles Mingus

Sep 04

Adams - Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes

Creativity is allowing yourself to make mistakes. Art is knowing which ones to keep.

— Scott Adams

Sep 04

Plomer - Creativity is the power to connect.

Creativity is the power to connect the seemingly unconnected.

— William Plomer